Week of March 24, 2025: Markets Rally on Trump’s Tariff Pivot & Key Economic Data Looms

Markets opened the week on a cautiously optimistic note, fueled by a surprise development from President Donald Trump: a moderated stance on tariffs. Investors appear to be pricing in relief from trade war fears, with early signs of upward momentum in key indices like the S&P 500. But optimism may be short-lived — Thursday’s GDP and PCE inflation data could bring volatility back into play.

Let’s break it down.

🧭 Market Sentiment: Tariff De-escalation Triggers Relief Rally

Research and early price action suggest investors are responding positively to news that President Trump will not pursue industry-specific tariffs as previously hinted. This reversal marks a significant departure from his administration’s earlier approach in 2025, when:

• On February 1, the White House announced a sweeping 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.
• By March 4, those tariffs were implemented — only to be lifted on March 6, according to NPR.

Now, Trump’s latest move — a more generalized, less punitive approach to trade — suggests a softening that markets weren’t pricing in. This policy pivot appears to be restoring investor confidence, at least temporarily.

🔍 The S&P 500, which closed at 5,667.56 on March 21 (Yahoo Finance), is expected to open near 5,700, marking a modest ~0.5% gain fueled by this sentiment shift.

This is a case study in policy-driven volatility. The speed at which sentiment shifted — from fear of trade wars to cautious optimism — underscores the market’s hypersensitivity to political signaling.

📅 Key Economic Events to Watch: March 24–28, 2025

While the market opens strong, investors can’t afford to coast. This week is loaded with data releases that could whiplash sentiment.

🗓️ Economic Data Calendar

👀 The March 27 triple release — GDP, PCE inflation, and jobless claims — is the macroeconomic inflection point of the week. Investors should expect increased volatility heading into Thursday’s open.

Stay up to date via trusted sources like:

• Trading Economics
• Kiplinger’s Economic Calendar

🧠 Strategic Context: What’s Behind the Numbers?

• GDP: Analysts are looking for signs that the economy is cooling just enough to avoid overheating, but not collapsing. A "Goldilocks" print could extend the rally.
• PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure will guide the interest rate outlook. A hot print revives the case for tightening in May, while a cool reading cements the current pause.
  • For context, the Fed held rates steady at its March 18–19 FOMC meeting, with no changes expected until at least May (Federal Reserve).
• Consumer Confidence & Housing Data: These serve as forward-looking indicators for demand resilience — particularly relevant in an election year, where sentiment plays a powerful role in market behavior.

🔍 Final Take: Calm Before the Storm?

This week opened with a sigh of relief from Wall Street. But don’t mistake this for complacency. We’re entering a data-heavy stretch, and just one upside surprise in PCE or downside miss in GDP could unravel the optimism built on Trump’s trade policy recalibration.

As always, the smart money watches what the data says, not just what the headlines scream.

🚀 What’s Your Outlook?

• Do you believe Trump’s trade policy will continue to moderate, or is this just a temporary de-escalation?
• How are you positioning ahead of Thursday’s economic data drops?
• Is the current S&P 500 rally justified — or are we setting up for a classic bull trap?

Key Citations

• United States Calendar Trading Economics
• Kiplinger's Economic Calendar for This Week (March 24-28) Kiplinger
• The short history of Trump's tariff chaos — and more that happened this week NPR
• Trump's latest tariff twist: A break for Mexico and Canada NPR
• Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China – The White House
• The Fed - Meeting calendars and information Federal Reserve
• Here’s The Fed’s Remaining 2025 Meeting Schedule And The Outlook For Interest Rates Forbes
• The Fed - January 28-29, 2025 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve